Market News

Wheat mixed, soybeans and corn down ahead of WASDE

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. Beans were waiting for more details on the trade deal between the U.S. and China, along with clarity on biofuels policy. What is known about that trade deal hasn’t really pertained to ag, the headlines have largely been about rare earth metals, and a 55% import U.S. tariff will remain on goods from China. There’s been no reported timeline for biofuels policy announcements. U.S. crop conditions are generally favorable, but most key development phases are yet to come. ANEC now has Brazil’s soybean exports for June at 14.08 million tons, a significant increase from last week’s projection of 12.55 million tons. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. Bean oil had additional support from the strength in crude oil, but gains were capped by that lack of biofuels policy clarity.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn was monitoring crop conditions ahead of the chance for warmer, drier weather in some areas later this month and early next month. The trade is also watching early second crop harvest activity in Brazil, with CONAB’s updated production guess out Thursday. ANEX pegs Brazil’s corn exports for June at 923,401 tons, compared to the prior week’s guess of 835,660 tons. Average daily ethanol production last week was an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says the average of 1.12 million barrels per day was up 15,000 on the week and 97,000 on the year, with stocks of 23.734 million barrels, the lowest level yet for 2025 and 706,000 below a week ago, but still 512,000 above a year ago. Ethanol exports averaged 151,000 barrels per day, 1,000 more than last week and 26,000 larger than last year.

The wheat complex was mixed, mostly modestly higher. Harvest conditions look mostly favorable in the Plains, while dry areas of the Black Sea region and China could see some rain. The USDA will update domestic and global wheat production Thursday in the monthly supply, demand, and production update. Export sales are out Thursday as well, and the trade will want to see if there are another strong round of new crop U.S. sales. The trade is also monitoring crop weather in Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Europe. Additionally, in the Black Sea region, estimates for Russia’s wheat crop have risen citing better yields in some areas, and despite intense drought in Rostov, and Ukraine is reportedly looking into trade partnerships outside of the European Union because of lower quotas. China’s Ag Ministry says 75% of their summer wheat crop has been harvested.